How geopolitical instability is reshaping scientific venture capital

Global tensions have become the trigger for a new investment thesis that can best be described as strategic and defensive..

Europe has recognized that dependence on external suppliers for semiconductors, batteries, critical pharmaceuticals, and defense capabilities represents a significant industrial risk. As a result, it has responded through a strategy of technological reshoring. Technological reshoring refers to the relocation of products, components, or software development back to their country of origin after years of being outsourced abroad.

In practical terms, Europe is increasingly investing in domestic production of technologies it has historically imported. Examples include the European Chips Act and major commitments to battery manufacturing and artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure. baterías e inteligencia artificial (IA).

Within this same trend, industry analyses from Deep Tech Momentum point to tens of billions of euros in investment linked to Europe’s race to deploy sovereign technological infrastructure.

Recent European Commission regulatory frameworks aimed at accelerating supercomputing and artificial intelligence capabilities have further strengthened this momentum.

In this environment, critical dependency chains function as a map of venture capital opportunities. Every point of vulnerability—from rare earth elements and integrated photonics to GPUs—represents a potential investment thesis for specialized deep tech funds.

Venture capital has evolved from a purely financial actor into a mechanism with geopolitical and national security implications, increasingly serving as a validator of regional technological independence.

When a fund backs a university spin-off in advanced materials or quantum computing, it is pursuing more than financial returns. It is also signaling support for a strategic capability that strengthens Europe’s technological position.

This shift is sustained by a public-private investment symbiosis in which public capital attracts private capital. Programs such as the EIC Accelerator, Horizon Europe, CDTI funding lines, and ENISA participatory loans act as institutional validation signals while reducing investment risk..

As a result, private investors are entering sectors they previously avoided because of long scientific development cycles.

The significance of this transformation is substantial. The European Investment Fund and the NATO Innovation Fund have strengthened their collaboration to mobilize private capital toward continental defense, security, and resilience . The outcome has been measurable: according to Dealroom, and the NATO Innovation Fund, European startups in these sectors raised a record $8.7 billion in 2025.

Within this framework, the priority verticals are clear: defense and dual-use technologies, healthcare and medical sovereignty, energy transition technologies, and critical digital infrastructure.

Strategic urgency is accelerating investment decision-making processes and increasing the number of specialized funding vehicles available to founders.

At the start of 2026, the European market saw the launch of new pan-European funds focused on sovereignty, dual-use technologies, and deep science, backed by leading investment firms aiming to shape the future of the deep tech ecosystem.

European startups working in defense, security, and resilience have experienced strong growth over the last year, significantly increasing their share of the deep tech ecosystem.

At the same time, a fundamental technical reality remains unchanged: scientific development cycles in biotechnology, quantum computing, and advanced materials are inherently long. What has changed is the availability of capital willing to support these longer timelines. ha cambiado es la disponibilidad de capital para sostener esta duración.

Under these conditions, founders should focus on two strategic priorities:

• Extending financial runway to maximize operational flexibility and reduce dependence on short-term funding pressure.
• Anticipating Seed, Series A, and Series B fundraising rounds earlier than would traditionally be required.

When investment windows open, markets and investors reward the companies that arrive best prepared.

Europe’s deep tech paradox remains largely intact in 2026. The continent possesses a world-class scientific foundation through universities,institutions such as CERN and the Max Planck Society, and powerful public programs including the European Innovation Council. Yet Europe still faces greater difficulty than the United States or China when it comes to scaling deep tech companies..

The gap is not primarily one of liquidity, but of execution. Constraints remain around incentives, talent availability, and risk appetite in later-stage financing.

The underlying challenge is the need for an investment ecosystem with stronger technological evaluation capabilities and founders prepared to operate across long-term horizons.

Against this backdrop, Europe deployed €66.2 billion in venture capital during 2025—just 22% of the amount invested in the United States despite having economies of comparable scale, according to the Centre for Economic Policy Research. This confirms that the challenge remains structural, particularly during the scale-up phase.

For Spain, however, the environment creates a genuine opportunity for university spin-offs and technology clusters. One example is the Innvierte Deep-Tech & Tech Transfer, program, jointly funded by CDTI and the European Investment Fund with €353 million dedicated to supporting technology transfer and early-stage Spanish deep tech ventures.

To capitalize on this momentum, success will depend on the maturity of the investment evaluation ecosystem, ensuring that project validation and technological development advance at the same pace as available capital.

Today, an effective fundraising strategy is defined by three key moves:

• Hybrid financing.This involves strategically combining non-dilutive funding sources—such as EIC Accelerator grants, NEOTEC, CDTI programs, or Next Tech initiatives—with R&D tax incentives and private investment rounds. The objective is to create a blended capital structure that preserves ownership while extending runway.
• A culture of adaptation.Despite market volatility, maintaining consistent execution speed is essential. The ability to pivot commercially and technologically can be just as important as scientific depth.
• A return to fundamentals.Startups must demonstrate real traction, solid unit economics and verifiable proprietary data. Investors increasingly expect sustainable, investment-ready business models.

One statistic highlights this reality: according to Carta, only 15% of startups that raised a Seed round in 2022 successfully closed a Series A within the following two years, compared with 30.6% of the 2018 cohort.

The fundraising window has effectively narrowed by half in five years. Companies that succeed are those that arrive prepared for a more demanding investment environment focused on efficient growth, disciplined spending, and strong financial foundations.

The answer is straightforward: geopolitical instability acts as a filter, selecting projects based on strategic relevance rather than novelty alone.

To attract capital, founders must build an investment narrative grounded in technological sovereignty and operational efficiencywhile demonstrating three essential attributes:

• Resilience across long development cycles and alignment with sovereignty-related investment verticals.
• An impact narrative connected to Europe’s strategic priorities, presenting science as a tool for stability and peace rather than simply competitiveness.
• Proven operational efficiency from the earliest stages, rather than promises of future execution.

At Bolboreta Innova Group, we help scientific teams navigate the evolving requirements of this new scientific venture capital funds.

We optimize funding strategies and support scientific founders from hypothesis validation through market impact, with a single objective: ensuring that the capital window Europe is opening for critical science does not close before your project is ready to seize the opportunity.

If you are developing a scientific venture and want to position it for this new investment cycle, get in touch with us.. We can help you structure your funding strategy and prepare for long-term growth.